Part Two: Can Liverpool Win The League Title?
Deep dive on Klopp's Reds, Arteta's Arsenal, & Clearlake's Crazy Chelsea.
Before reading on, make sure you have read the first part of this analysis which looked at - chuckle - the Reds’ rivals Manchester United, and the improving Tottenham Hotspur under the impressive Ange Postecoglou.
In this part, the focus will be on the London clubs Arsenal, who challenged for the title last season, as well as Chelsea who barely scored a goal last season in finishing in the bottom half of the table (12th) and shouldn’t be anywhere near the conversation for potential title winners; but the fact they spent the GDP of a small nation in the transfer window crowbars them into this analysis; moreover, the addition of Pochettino should be a huge improvement on Graham Potter or Frank Lampard. The final part will be a brief look at Manchester City, and a huge section dedicated to the brilliant Brighton & Hove Albion, and in particular suggestions that not only are they the best run club in world football - but also have the manager over-performing the most given the resources available to him. Finally, saving the best until last, a look at Liverpool themselves, including some pressing data from the Under Pressure Podcast. This will be split between the end of this article and the beginning of the next one (so one section for subscribers only and the other free for all!).
Arsenal
On the surface, Arsenal secured their top three targets in Rice, Havertz and Timber spending a whopping £205m as well as a nominal fee for David Raya on a season-long loan.
Let’s not forget that at the start of April last season the Gunners were still favourites to win the title.
Perhaps more importantly though was - in hindsight - what feels like a sliding doors moment.
Liverpool 0 - 2 Arsenal: goals from Jesus and Martinelli put Arteta’s side on top, in the match and extending their lead over Man City at the pinnacle of the Premier League.
Then Granit Xhaka went nose to nose with Trent Alexander-Arnold, before the latter turned into the best player in the division for the remainder of the season.
Liverpool had 0.32 xG at the time of the Gunners’ second goal. They finished the game with 4.64 xG and a frankly ridiculous EIGHT big chances. It was the first showing of Trent’s new tactical hybrid role; and it was one of the most one-sided halves of football you are ever likely to see. Liverpool embarrassed Arsenal. Klopp embarrassed Arteta. And while the Reds are still on the same unbeaten run, the North London club never recovered and dropped points in five of their remaining eight matches including three defeats to Man City, Brighton and Nottingham Forest.
One of the weakest elements of Arsenal’s system was Thomas Partey in the six role, not because of his ability but more his injury issues as he missed ten matches in the league. They simply didn’t have any quality to replace him so decided to invest an eye watering £105m in West Ham’s Declan Rice.
That doesn’t particularly scream hundred million pound player does it? Perhaps most importantly for a player in his position though is interceptions. Sniffing out and preventing danger. Reading the game well and preventing passes and dribbles into your penalty area. Declan Rice excels at this and is one of the best in world statistically. However when you compare him to Rodri who many hold up as the player most important to Man City’s treble last season, despite all of Haaland’s goals, you can see the Rice’s flaws. There’s also a striking similarity with Partey who he’s replacing. Finally, on balance, and including the English premium it looks like they’ve overpaid by around the £30m mark.
Perhaps one of the strangest deals of the window for any of the Reds’ rivals was the £65m signing of Kai Havertz from Chelsea. The previous summer Arsenal had convinced Gabriel Jesus to leave Man City and join the Gunners with an instant impact. He got injured and they struggled to reproduce his output. Bafflingly then decided that Havertz was the answer to their apparent striker issues. It feels like Arteta wants a Firmino-type false nine player to bring the best of out Martinelli and Saka, which makes lots of sense. So how does his profile suit this?
Based purely on the statistics - and comparing him to the best false nine of all time our very own Bobby Firmino - it looks like the perfect deal. He’s great on the ball, dribbles well, has brilliant defensive figures that suggests he’ll press and work hard but contributes virtually nothing in terms of shots, and nearly ranks in the bottom 50% for xG and non-penalty goals. This season he’s attempted six shots, failed to hit the target once and missed his only big chance. Arteta is still backing him so time will tell on this deal.
Whilst being a big fan of Jurrien Timber, and he was incredibly impressive against Liverpool in the Champions League, if he’s been picked to play centre-back it should be a huge concern for Arsenal fans; if he’s been signed to play the Trent hybrid role on the right or left hand side it could be shrewd business. Unfortunate he had the worst possible debut, damaging his ACL and is reportedly out until March.
Not too much to focus on in terms of departures, with the young English striker Balogun departing to France for a £25m fee, and their ex-captain Granit Xhaka leaving to join Alonso at table-topping Bayer Leverkusen. Another strange decision is the one to let Kieran Tierney leave for Spain after paying over £25m for him from Celtic a few years ago. Finally, arguably the most overpriced failed signing in the club’s history, that of Pepe who was signed for £70m and allowed to leave on a free transfer this summer. Below is his market value over his career.
Tactical Analysis:
How is the team performing so far this season?
Fortunate to win their opening game at home to Forest.
The away win at Crystal Palace and home victory over Man Utd are clearly the highlights so far and well deserved based on the stats, though the decisions did go their way to beat ten Hag’s side.
On the flip side, how they failed to beat Fulham despite dominating the xG and creating plenty of high quality chances, is remarkable.
Finally, that victory over Everton is one of the worst games I’ve seen for a long time. No big chances for either side, but Arteta’s side nicked it against a drab and dreadful Everton team.
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