2022/23 - A Season to Forget or Crucial For the Future?
Part One (Team Only) - A Statistical Deep Dive on the Reds' Recent Campaign
As many of you will know, in contextualising some of the post-match data for Liverpool we collect a variety of different data points on every game in the originally-named Match-by-Match stats database. Alongside this, there is also the pressing data used on the Under Pressure Podcast on the Anfield Index feed.
Using this we will attempt to breakdown the Reds’ recent season, and assess where it all went wrong (and right). What we definitely need to improve on, but also what compared well with some of our most successful seasons under Klopp.
First of all, let’s look at the basic season summary to get a feel for some of the key metrics we will focus on.
(Premier League & Champions League only)
Shot quality is the average % value of each shot attempted by each team: so for Liverpool, each shot had a 13% chance of being scored. This is above average (10%) but also provides some context on the opposition’s even ‘better’ 14%.
The other standout figure is the big chances: for me this is the biggest indicator of our struggles in many different facets of the game (more on this later). Initially, the 3.11 per game is elite level, up there with the best in Europe (and as you can see below, comparable with any season under Klopp).
Now, this above is Premier League data only - and figure increases slightly to 3.29 - but it’s better than the league-winning season, and only behind last season (which to me is the best we’ve played looking at the data).
Time to bring down the mood though because the 2.74 we conceded is as bad as it gets - it’s relegation levels of poor defending - and arguably the key data point of the whole campaign. If you concede enough high quality chances to get relegated then it’s impossible - even for one of the best attacks in the world - to create and convert enough to compensate. Over 100 big chances! Only Fulham (111) and Leeds (111) conceded more.
What caused this defensive profligacy?
There’s clearly a variety of factors:
Individual performances dipped significantly, with Henderson, Fabinho, Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, Van Dijk, Matip, Gomez and even Van Dijk showing regression in their individual performance levels.
A terrible pre-season that restricted our ability as a team to put in Klopp-expected levels of distance and sprints.
Pressing problems, not only caused by the two above, but also new players in a well oiled system showing a lack of synchronicity and understanding of the nuances required to succeed as a pressing player in our tactical set up.
Injuries were also a vital factor of course. With no chance to get a run of games together.
The stop/start nature of the season with the World Cup.
How do we fix it?
Well, the clamour is for new, shiny, signings - particularly in midfield, and it’s impossible to disagree with that. As MIlner, Keita, and Oxlade-Chamberlain leave - as well as Henderson and Fabinho struggling to cover the same distance or press as effectively anymore - we need new blood in that area of the pitch. Nevertheless, if we break the season down into sections, the final part of 2022/23 was impressive (results and underlying numbers).
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